Intelligent Earnings Benchmark
We test frontier AI models on the hardest question in equity research: How will forward earnings expectations change before a stock reprices it?
Results
Methodology
The Intelligent Earnings Benchmark tests whether frontier AI models can predict where the market's forward earnings expectations are too high or too low. Each model receives identical company data and is asked to predict the direction and magnitude of forward estimate revisions over the next 60 days.
8 quarters of income statements and balance sheets, 12 quarters of earnings surprise history, the most recent earnings call transcript, current consensus estimates, and 8 quarters of historical consensus revision data.
All models share access to historical financial data, recent company commentary, FRED economic data, and a calculation tool. Every model receives the same directions and base-rate details.
Revenue and EPS revision direction (up, down, flat), magnitude (small, medium, large), an implied revision percentage, confidence score, key signals, and overall rationale.
Predictions are scored against realized consensus changes measured 60 days after the prediction deadline. Directional accuracy measures the right call; magnitude accuracy measures sizing.
US-listed common equities with market caps above $10B, excluding ADRs, SPACs, and ETFs. Frozen at each quarterly deadline and re-screened quarterly.
Every run is logged for the entire universe with the prompt, data packets, and predictions. Model version strings and tool-call logs are preserved and re-scorable.
Disclaimer
The Intelligent Earnings Benchmark (IEB) is an experimental, AI-generated financial benchmark developed by Intelligent Alpha for educational and informational purposes only. The IEB is not a financial product, investment vehicle, index fund, or investable strategy. It does not represent a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. No assets are managed according to the IEB, and it should not be used as the sole basis for any investment decision.
The benchmark reflects hypothetical, backtested, and/or forward-looking results generated by AI models. These results are based on model predictions of revenue and earnings direction and magnitude. The IEB does not reflect actual portfolio performance, real-world trading, transaction costs, slippage, taxes, or other factors that would affect returns in practice. Hypothetical results have inherent limitations and should not be interpreted as indicative of future performance.
AI-generated predictions are inherently uncertain and may be inaccurate. Past performance, whether actual or simulated, is not indicative of future results. The models used to generate the IEB may change over time without notice, and Intelligent Alpha makes no representation or warranty regarding the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of any information provided. Nothing on this page constitutes investment advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to invest.
Subscribe
Follow our work — research updates and new findings on how advanced AI invests, straight to your inbox.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
Disclaimer
The following link may contain information concerning investments, products or other information. Intelligent Alpha LLC is not responsible for the accuracy or completeness of information on non-affiliated websites and does not make any representation regarding the advisability of investing in any investment fund or other investment product or vehicle. Importantly, Intelligent Alpha LLC is not compensated for linking you to any non-affiliated website and instead is only compensated with an asset-based fee in the limited capacities as either a licensor of intellectual property or a sub-adviser to an investment adviser. The material available on non-affiliated websites has been produced by entities that are not affiliated with Intelligent Alpha LLC. Descriptions of, references to, or links to products or publications within any non-affiliated linked website does not imply endorsement or recommendation of that product or publication by Intelligent Alpha LLC. Any opinions or recommendations from non-affiliated websites are solely those of the independent providers and are not the opinions or recommendations of Intelligent Alpha LLC which is not responsible for any inaccuracies or errors.
THIS INFORMATION IS NOT AN OFFER TO BUY OR A SOLICITATION TO SELL ANY SECURITY OR INVESTMENT PRODUCT. SUCH AN OFFER OR SOLICITATION IS MADE ONLY BY THE SECURITIES' OR INVESTMENT PRODUCTS' ISSUER OR SPONSOR THROUGH A PROSPECTUS OR OTHER OFFERING.